The Energy Storage Industry: From Overcapacity to Cell Shortage Amid Global Energy Shift

I. The Global Energy Storage Market: From Overcapacity to Structural Shortage

In 2025, the global energy storage battery cell market has witnessed a dramatic shift in its supply - demand dynamic. Production lines of leading battery manufacturers are operating at near - full capacity. A prominent energy storage integrator revealed to the media that its procurement team has been urgently pressuring battery cell suppliers for deliveries, as a large volume of energy storage orders are slated for fulfillment in April and May. Driven by factors such as policy incentives, burgeoning demand in emerging markets, and the surging need for computing power infrastructure, the supply - demand scenario for battery cells has transformed from initial mismatch to local scarcity. The energy storage industry has thus entered a new development phase marked by this supply - demand reversal.

Data substantiates this trend. In the Chinese market, since 2021, the production capacities of energy storage battery cells and energy storage system integration have been on a continuous upward trajectory. Notably, the production capacity of energy storage battery cells has been growing exponentially since 2022, reaching 607 GWh in 2024, while the energy storage system integration capacity hit 436 GWh in the same year. Despite an expected increase in China's new energy storage installation capacity exceeding 110 GWh in 2025, representing a year - on - year growth rate of over 60%, along with concurrent growth in overseas energy storage demand, a short - term structural supply - demand imbalance persists. He Zhuoxin, a researcher at the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, noted that the global market share of energy storage battery cells has largely taken shape as a pattern dominated by the top 10 Chinese enterprises. Chinese firms' 300Ah + large - capacity energy storage battery cells have further fortified the competitiveness of China's leading energy storage battery manufacturers, attributable to their excellent cost - effectiveness, increasing market share, and accelerated mass production.

II. Policy - Driven: Electricity Price Reform Sparks a "Rush - to - Install" Wave

In February this year, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - Grid Electricity Prices to Promote the High - Quality Development of New Energy", which has become a pivotal turning point in the industry's development. This notice stipulates that for existing projects (connected to the grid prior to June 1, 2025), a "price - difference settlement mechanism" will be implemented to ensure that their revenues are not lower than those under the original mechanism, albeit with a gradual reduction in the proportion of guaranteed electricity. For incremental projects (connected to the grid after June 1, 2025), electricity prices will be determined entirely through market competition.

Industry insiders have pointed out that this policy adjustment has spurred a large number of projects to be rushed into installation before June 1, directly leading to a sharp spike in energy storage demand. However, in the long run, determining the mechanism electricity prices of incremental projects through market - oriented means following the policy adjustment is conducive to better leveraging the role of the market. Due to this policy change, enterprises have concentrated on launching projects to secure higher returns. In the short term, the demand for battery cells has surged by 30% - 50%. Although the long - term market - oriented mechanism is beneficial for the industry's healthy development, the short - term supply - demand imbalance has become an established reality.

III. Technological Iteration and Global Layout: Leading Enterprises' Breakthrough Strategies

3.1 Technological Upgrades Accelerate Industry Restructuring

In the realm of technological advancements, Chinese enterprises have successfully cut system costs by 15% - 20% and achieved a cycle life of over 12,000 times using the 300Ah + large - cell technology, significantly enhancing product competitiveness. Simultaneously, industry - leading players like CATL and EVE Energy are ramping up their R & D investment in long - duration energy storage technologies, such as solid - state batteries and all - vanadium redox flow batteries, to meet grid - level energy storage demands. Long - duration energy storage technologies (capable of storing energy for over 4 hours) have garnered significant attention in recent years, triggering a research and investment upsurge. These technologies not only ensure stable power supply in scenarios like data centers but also promote the consumption of green electricity and drive the sustainable development of related industries.

3.2 Global Capacity Expansion

The sustained growth in market demand has compelled leading battery manufacturers to actively expand their production capacities. On April 8, EVE Energy Co., Ltd. in Huizhou announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, EVE Hungary, recently received a building permit from the local government, enabling EVE Hungary to construct a battery manufacturing plant in Debrecen. This will significantly propel the company's construction process in Hungary and further expand its power and energy storage battery production capacity. On March 15, CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. publicly announced plans to add 40 GWh of battery production capacity in Dongying, Shandong. Concurrently, the first project under the strategic cooperation between CATL and Dongying City - a new ecological energy storage Pack production line with an investment of 500 million yuan and a production capacity of 2 GWh - is also under construction. CATL's relevant personnel believe that the global energy storage market holds promising growth prospects in the future. The market demands high - quality products. The company's energy storage products have been highly acclaimed in the market for their safety and long lifespan and do not rely solely on low - cost strategies to secure orders, thus maintaining a reasonable profit margin. Leading enterprises have further encroached upon the market space of small and medium - sized manufacturers by erecting a dual - barrier of "technology + capacity".

IV. Computing Power and Energy Transformation: Unleashing a Trillion - Dollar New Blue Ocean

The explosion of AI computing power is redefining the demand logic for energy storage. Currently, the rapid progress of AI has led to an exponential growth in computing power requirements, inevitably giving rise to energy consumption issues. The power consumption of data centers, which serve as the core infrastructure for computing power, has skyrocketed. According to predictions by the International Energy Agency, from 2025 to 2027, the power consumption of data centers and 5G networks in China will grow rapidly, with the proportion of data center power consumption expected to increase from the current 3% to approximately 6%. Compared to traditional data centers, the power of a single cabinet in an AI data center has increased by 5 to 8 times, resulting in a substantial rise in the power demands of data centers of the same scale.

The demand for power reliability in data centers is steadily increasing. On one hand, their power demands are volatile, with power consumption surging during computing - intensive tasks. On the other hand, data centers typically require round - the - clock uninterrupted power supply. Energy storage can not only address power supply fluctuations but also reduce energy consumption during computing tasks by optimizing power usage, playing a crucial role in ensuring the stable power supply of data centers. CATL previously stated in investor communications that currently, the demand for data center energy storage in Australia and the Middle East is relatively high. Given the high power consumption and the need for stable power in data centers, the quality requirements for energy storage batteries are stringent, making it a high - quality incremental market for the future.

Moreover, grid - forming energy storage is gradually emerging. By optimizing power trading strategies through AI, it can enhance the grid's inertia response, black - start, and other support functions, with a technology premium of over 30%. With the development of the AI industry and the rise of data centers, energy storage systems have been installed in many important data centers and intelligent computing centers in China, especially in regions rich in wind and solar resources, where the combination of wind power, photovoltaic power generation, and energy storage systems has become a common configuration.

V. Industry Challenges and Future Prospects

5.1 Short - Term Hurdles

Despite the recovery in the energy storage industry's demand, it still confronts numerous challenges. From a market competition perspective, small and medium - sized enterprises are trapped in a "quantity - over - price" conundrum, with the profit margin of some orders dropping below 5%. For instance, in the industrial and commercial energy storage sector, the price war is intense. The unit price of 418kWh energy storage cabinets has plummeted from 1.4 yuan/Wh in September 2023 to 0.478 yuan/Wh at present, and the cost of battery cells has been squeezed down to 0.27 yuan, severely constricting enterprises' profit margins. Additionally, the intensification of market competition has made enterprises more circumspect in new product iterations. From a supply - chain perspective, fluctuations in raw material prices, such as the instability of lithium carbonate prices, have exacerbated supply - chain risks and posed difficulties for enterprise production and cost control.

5.2 Long - Term Trajectories

Policy and the market will operate in a two - pronged drive. The objectives for China's new energy storage manufacturing industry in 2027 are clear, with high - end and intelligent technologies set to dominate the market. The "Opinions on Promoting the High - Quality Development of the Green Power Certificate Market for Renewable Energy" jointly issued by multiple departments, including the National Data Bureau, proposes that by 2030, the proportion of green power consumption by enterprises in industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, building materials, petrochemicals, and chemical engineering, as well as key energy - consuming units and industries like data centers, should generally not be lower than the average level of the national total renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight. The proportion of green power consumption in newly built data centers at national hub nodes will be further increased based on the existing 80%. The "Action Plan for the High - Quality Development of the New Energy Storage Manufacturing Industry" issued by eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, also advocates promoting the allocation of new energy storage for users with high requirements for power supply reliability, power quality, and high power consumption, such as data centers, intelligent computing centers, and communication base stations. In the global competition, enterprises with technological barriers, overseas channels, and full - chain service capabilities will dominate the incremental markets in Europe, America, Southeast Asia, etc., propelling the industry towards high - quality development.

Conclusion: The "Energy Storage Moment" in the Energy Revolution

The shortage of battery cells is no coincidence but rather the outcome of the combined effects of global energy transformation, the computing power revolution, and policy catalysis. In the future, the energy storage industry will gradually bifurcate into two camps: technology - leading enterprises represented by CATL and EVE Energy will occupy the high - end of the value chain through continuous innovation, while followers lacking core competitiveness may be phased out in the fierce market competition. This supply - demand reversal is not only a challenge for the industry's development but also a rare historical opportunity to restructure the global energy landscape. The energy storage industry stands at a critical juncture. Performance in areas such as technological innovation, market expansion, and supply - chain optimization will determine enterprises' positions in the future market.

Reference Sources: (This article is comprehensively compiled from Securities Daily, industry white papers, and the developments of leading enterprises)